@article{Mukhtar_Khatri_Khatri_Ghouri_Rybarczyk_2022, title={“Underneath the visible” - COVID-19 Risk prediction tools in a high-volume, low-resource Emergency Department}, volume={39}, url={https://www.pjms.org.pk/index.php/pjms/article/view/6043}, DOI={10.12669/pjms.39.1.6043}, abstractNote={<p><em><strong>Objectives:</strong></em> Patient risk stratification is the cornerstone of COVID-19 disease management; that has impacted health systems globally. We evaluated the performance of the Brescia-COVID Respiratory Severity Scale (BCRSS), CALL (Co-morbid, age, Lymphocyte and Lactate dehydrogenase) Score, and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines in Emergency department (ED) on arrival, as predictors of outcomes; Intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital mortality.</p> <p><em><strong>Methods:</strong> </em>A two-month retrospective chart review of 88 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia; requiring emergency management was conducted at ED, Indus Hospital and Health Network (IHHN), Karachi, Pakistan, (April 1 to May 31, 2020). The sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) for the scores were obtained to assess their predictive capability for outcomes.</p> <p><em><strong>Results:</strong></em> The in-hospital mortality rate was 48.9 % with 59.1 % ICU admissions and with a mean age at presentation of 56 ± 13 years. Receiver operator curve for BCRSS depicted good predicting capability for in hospital mortality [AUC 0.81(95% CI 0.71-0.91)] and ICU admission [AUC 0.73(95%CI 0.62-0.83)] amongst all models of risk assessment.</p> <p><em><strong>Conclusion:</strong></em> BCRSS depicted better prediction of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. Prospective studies using this tool are needed to assess its utility in predicting high-risk patients and guide treatment escalation in LMIC’s.</p> <p><strong>doi: https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.39.1.6043</strong></p> <p><em><strong>How to cite this:</strong></em> Mukhtar S, Khatri SA, Khatri A, Ghouri N, Rybarczyk M. “Underneath the visible” - COVID-19 Risk prediction tools in a high-volume, low-resource Emergency Department. Pak J Med Sci. 2023;39(1):86-90. doi: https://doi.org/10.12669/pjms.39.1.6043</p> <p>This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</p&gt;}, number={1}, journal={Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences}, author={Mukhtar, Sama and Khatri, Sarfaraz Ahmed and Khatri, Adeel and Ghouri, NIDA and Rybarczyk, Megan}, year={2022}, month={Dec.} }